Solana’s price action has brought it back to a decisive high-time-frame resistance zone. With confluence stacking at $149 and momentum stalling, traders are watching closely to see if this is a setup for continuation — or correction.
After finding support just below the $100 mark, Solana (SOL) has staged an impressive recovery. The bounce has sparked fresh optimism among bulls, but that enthusiasm is now being tested as price approaches a crucial resistance zone around $149 — a level reinforced by multiple technical signals.
Resistance Pile-Up at $149: Point of Control, VWAP, and Fib Retracement
The $149 level isn’t just another round number — it marks the point of control (POC) for all Solana price action since the start of 2024. This means it’s the most traded price of the year so far, representing an area where buyers and sellers have historically been most active.
Adding to the pressure, this level also aligns with:
- The anchored VWAP from the yearly open
- The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the current range
This combination of factors makes $149 a significant confluence zone — one that could either become a launchpad or a ceiling.
Volume Decline Hints at Weakening Momentum
Although Solana has bounced strongly off support, the rally is showing signs of losing steam. Most notably, volume has been declining as the price approaches resistance. This suggests that fewer market participants are stepping in to support the move, which often precedes a reversal or deeper pullback.
So far, price has merely tapped the $149 zone and faded, with no decisive breakout. This kind of hesitation at a key level is often a warning sign — especially when paired with weakening volume and lower-time-frame rejections.
Rejection Scenario: $113 and $100 as Key Support Levels
If Solana fails to reclaim and close above $149 soon, the bearish case strengthens. The most immediate downside target would be the value area low (VAL) at around $113, which has acted as a support base earlier this year.
Below that, the $100 level becomes the next key test. While this area held firm during the last drop, a second visit under weaker conditions may not see the same buyer response — raising the risk of a deeper correction or new local low.
Bullish Invalidation: Sustained Break Above $149 Could Flip the Script
The bearish outlook would be invalidated if bulls manage to reclaim $149 with strong volume and follow-through. In that scenario, $149 would flip from resistance to support, opening the door for a push toward the range high at $209.
A clean breakout would re-establish bullish momentum and shift market structure in favor of upside continuation.
What to Expect in the Near Term
The short-term trend remains neutral-to-bearish as long as Solana trades below the $149 point of control. Without a convincing reclaim of this level, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
“The rejection from this major confluence zone puts SOL in a vulnerable spot,” noted one analyst. “It’s a classic case of a rally losing fuel right where it needs power the most.”
For now, traders should watch for:
- High-time-frame closes below $149
- Rising sell-side volume
- Breakdown below $113 support
Until buyers step in with conviction, the risk of rotation lower remains elevated. Only a strong push above resistance can flip the current structure and restore confidence in a sustained uptrend.
