Over 85% of Bitcoin Holders Are in Profit—Should Investors Prepare for a Pullback?
As Bitcoin consolidates between $94K and $95K, on-chain indicators suggest the market is entering a critical decision zone. According to recent data from CryptoQuant, more than 85% of all BTC holders are now in profit, a level that historically precedes heightened market euphoria—and often, corrections.
This brings the “supply in profit” metric into sharp focus. While elevated profitability typically reinforces uptrends, breaching the 90% threshold has, in past cycles, signaled overheated sentiment and impending pullbacks.
“It’s not bearish until it becomes euphoric,” notes analyst Darkfost. “But once euphoria kicks in, caution becomes necessary.”
On-Chain and Options Data Point to Mixed Signals
While price action remains strong, other key metrics present a fragmented outlook:
- Daily Active Addresses have rebounded to over 800,000, signaling increased network usage but still falling short of 2023’s 900K and 2021’s 1.2M highs.
- Open interest in Bitcoin options rose by $1 billion in two days, hinting at speculative appetite. However, implied volatility (IV) is falling—signaling lower expected short-term moves.
- Derivative traders remain bullish: Call options dominate, with 73% of BTC options premiums targeting upside, and ETH traders even more aggressive at 82% call bias.
But one red flag stands out: Bitcoin’s 30-day Demand Momentum is still negative. According to analyst Crazzyblockk, this signals that short-term traders are distributing, while long-term holders are slowing their accumulation.
Demand Momentum: -483,860 BTC
30-Day SMA: -310,700 BTC
Historically, such patterns align with late-cycle phases or cooling periods, especially when profit-taking accelerates among short-term holders.
Technicals: Overbought or Building for a Breakout?
Technically, Bitcoin faces resistance at $98,000 and support between $85K–$87K. The RSI near 67 suggests mild overbought conditions, while Stochastic RSI hints at exhaustion. On the other hand, MACD and momentum indicators still lean bullish.
The current structure shows institutional strength, but retail participation remains subdued, echoing the muted address activity and cooling volatility.
Conclusion: Watch the Profit Threshold and Short-Term Holder Behavior
If the “supply in profit” metric pushes beyond 90%, traders may begin locking in gains—especially if demand from long-term holders doesn’t improve. At that point, a correction to the $87K range wouldn’t be surprising.
Still, if active addresses continue to climb and institutional flows stay strong, Bitcoin may yet breach $100,000.Key for investors: Monitor euphoric signals, demand momentum, and short-term holder behavior. The next few weeks could define whether this is a local top or a new leg up.
