Despite Ethereum’s struggle to regain momentum after its late-2024 highs, on-chain data shows that long-term holders are doubling down—accumulating more and reducing their cost basis even as the market faces bearish pressure.
Ethereum (ETH) dropped from a cycle peak of $4,107 in December 2024 to under $1,900 in recent months. But when the price hit a local low of $1,866.70 on March 10, it pushed a key group of accumulating addresses into an unrealized loss.
These addresses—tracked by CryptoQuant and classified as long-term holders (LTHs) due to their 155+ day average holding period—didn’t panic. Instead, they lowered their average realized price by 2.32%, from $2,026 to $1,980, while ramping up ETH accumulation.
Over a span of seven weeks, their combined ETH holdings jumped from 15.53M to 19.04M ETH, an impressive 22.5% increase—highlighting continued faith in Ethereum’s long-term value proposition.
ETH at a Crossroads: Can Support Hold?
Ethereum began May with brief upside momentum but failed to sustain it. Prices hovered under the $1,820 mark after a brief surge to $1,873 on May 3. Technical indicators—such as the hourly ETH/USD chart—are now showing bearish signals.
A critical support range between $1,772–$1,824 is holding the line for now. Over 6.36 million ETH was purchased here by over 4.5 million wallets, placing the average cost basis near $1,799.
If Ethereum slips below this zone, analysts warn of a potential steep correction—possibly toward $1,500, where support thins out and buyers become scarce.
Ali Martinez cautioned in a recent post that a breakdown from this zone could trigger accelerated selling, especially if broader market sentiment remains weak.
Signs of a Breakout? Analysts Eye Key Reversal Patterns
Not all is bleak. Top analyst Michaël van de Poppe identified a falling wedge pattern forming on Ethereum charts—a classic bullish reversal setup.
He believes ETH may soon flip sentiment, especially if key resistance levels at $1,840 and $1,880 are broken with volume. This could open the door to a $2,000+ breakout, particularly as the Ethereum roadmap progresses and Layer 2 ecosystems flourish post-Dencun.
Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin’s 2025 roadmap is expected to play a significant role in defining ETH’s mid-term narrative. Between improved scaling, reduced fees, and maturing DeFi and NFT layers, Ethereum is laying the groundwork for renewed growth.
For now, the conviction shown by long-term holders suggests they see current prices not as a risk—but as a rare opportunity.
