Bitcoin has surged sharply from recent lows, driven by a textbook short squeeze, but now finds itself at a key technical inflection point. With multiple resistance levels converging near $98,300, traders are closely watching to see whether the move can evolve into a full bullish reversal — or if this rally is destined to stall out.
What Drove the Rally?
The recent upside began as bearish sentiment peaked, with many traders piling into short positions near Bitcoin’s recent local bottom. As price began to bounce, these shorts were rapidly liquidated, triggering a cascade of forced buybacks — the hallmark of a short squeeze. The move caught many off guard, sending BTC higher with minimal initial resistance.
But such rallies are often unsustainable unless confirmed by real demand — particularly spot buying volume — which so far remains thin.
Major Resistance Cluster at $98,300
Bitcoin is now approaching a confluence of technical resistance, making this area a make-or-break zone for the next move:
- $98,300 resistance, a key horizontal level from previous price structure.
- 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, drawn from the last swing high to the recent low.
- Descending channel resistance, in play since early April.
- Point of Control (POC) on the volume profile, marking a high-traffic zone of prior consolidation.
This level also aligns with a daily imbalance zone, adding further weight to its significance.
Scenarios to Watch
Bearish Case: A rejection at this level — especially on rising volume — could confirm the rally as a short squeeze top, with price potentially falling back to test lower supports near $92K–$94K.
Bullish Case: If BTC consolidates near resistance and then breaks above $98,300 with conviction and spot volume, it could flip resistance into support, setting the stage for a genuine bullish continuation.
Thin Liquidity, Light Spot Interest Raise Caution
Despite the impressive bounce, liquidity remains thin, and there’s limited evidence of institutional or retail spot buying. Without strong follow-through demand, smart money may fade the rally, particularly if BTC fails to establish a support base above current resistance.
What Traders Should Watch Next
- Daily close above $98,300: Bullish breakout confirmation.
- Volume and open interest behavior: Sustained spot demand is key.
- Failure to break and rejection wick: High probability of retracement toward lower support.
Until confirmed otherwise, traders are advised to remain cautious, as the next move will likely set the tone for BTC’s trend in early May.
