The crypto market is treading cautiously as traders await the rollout of former President Donald Trump’s proposed “Liberation Day” tariffs, set to take effect on Wednesday and Thursday.
Bitcoin showed a slight uptick on Tuesday, but overall market sentiment remains fragile and uncertain.
According to Shivam Thakral, CEO of Indian crypto exchange BuyUcoin, Trump’s tariff plans could deliver a serious jolt to market momentum.
“We’re seeing heightened uncertainty in global markets due to the ongoing trade tariff war,” Thakral said in a note to Cryptonews. “The growing correlation between traditional finance and Bitcoin is now evident. With BTC trading below $85,000, many investors are moving back to traditional assets as a safe haven.”
Bitcoin Fills CME Gap at $83K–$84K, but Trend Remains Unclear
Bitcoin recently filled a CME futures gap in the $83,000 to $84,000 range—a move traders often see as a signal for a possible short-term trend reversal.
However, BTC has now dropped below its 200-day moving average, and with daily liquidations still under $250 million, the market lacks decisive momentum.
If Trump’s tariff announcements come in harsher than expected, BTC could test support at $79,000, or even drop to $73,000 if fear takes hold across markets.
The current long-to-short ratio hovers around 50-50, showing just how split market participants are. Trading volumes remain subdued, and the Fear & Greed Index is stuck in “fear” territory—often a signal of a potential market bottom.
In a blog post, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes offered a bold take:
“If my read on the Fed’s shift from quantitative tightening to easing is correct, then the recent low of $76,500 was the local bottom—and we’re now on our way to $250,000 by year-end.”
10X Research Warns of Possible Drop to $73K
Market research firm 10X Research echoed similar concerns earlier in March, cautioning that Bitcoin could revisit $73,000 in the near future.
The group pointed to a spike in retail activity during Bitcoin’s post-election rally in January, especially in meme coins, as a potential market top. Without a fresh catalyst, they believe Bitcoin could struggle to regain upward momentum.
Short-Term Tariff Impact Likely Bearish for BTC
According to James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, the introduction of new tariffs may put short-term pressure on Bitcoin.
“Unlike gold, Bitcoin has a growth component—it reacts to broader economic trends and liquidity,” Butterfill wrote in a February report.
He suggested that slower growth combined with rising inflation could temporarily drag on Bitcoin, especially if the U.S. economy faces a stagflation-like scenario.
However, in the long run, Butterfill believes Bitcoin may outperform traditional equities—particularly once interest rate hikes become unsustainable in a weakening economic environment.
