From $2 K Hopes to $1.4 K Panic
Over the past two weeks Ethereum has plunged nearly 30%, sliding from just under $2,000 to lows below $1,400 before stabilizing in the $1,600 zone. The swift drop erased spring gains and left ETH trading beneath every major moving average, including its 21‑day line—an area that has capped rallies since February.
Technicals Flash Caution—but Watch $1,670
Chart signals remain bearish: the 21‑day, 50‑day, and 200‑day EMAs all loom overhead, while the relative‑strength index hovers in neutral territory. Yet popular analyst Ted Pillows argues that a daily close above $1,670 could ignite a push toward $2,000, repeating an early‑April breakout pattern. Until that level is reclaimed, traders should expect choppy sideways action.
Macro Headwinds Cloud the Picture
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell warned this week that Trump’s expanded tariffs could slow growth and stoke inflation, making rate cuts less likely in the near term. A “higher for longer” narrative on interest rates typically pressures risk assets such as tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, suggesting the macro backdrop still leans bearish for ETH.
On‑Chain Valuation Signals a Bargain
Not everyone is pessimistic. Pseudonymous analyst Mister Crypto notes ETH has fallen below its realized price—the average cost basis of all coins—an area that has historically marked profitable accumulation windows. Ethereum also retains the largest share of total value locked in DeFi, far ahead of rivals like Solana and Tron, underscoring its entrenched network effects.
Political Tailwinds: Washington Loves ETH
With the Trump administration openly pro‑crypto—and members of the Trump family reportedly HODLing ETH—Ethereum enjoys a rare policy backstop. If geopolitical tensions or tariff‑induced slowdowns force the Fed to reopen liquidity taps later this year, a friendlier regulatory tone could amplify any rally that follows.
History Says Alt‑Season Follows Liquidity
Prior “alt‑seasons” have emerged only after central banks flooded markets with stimulus, easing recession fears and chasing investors into higher‑beta coins. Analysts think that pattern will repeat: first a downturn (tariff‑driven recession), then aggressive Fed easing (rate cuts and QE), and finally an alt‑coin surge where ETH typically leads. Until those conditions align, accumulation—rather than leverage—may be the smarter play.
Strategy Check: Accumulate ETH, Monitor $1,550
For active traders the $1,550–$1,600 band is key support. A decisive break below could open the door to the 2024 low near $1,350. Conversely, a daily candle above $1,670 with volume would flip momentum long, targeting $1,900–$2,000. Long‑term investors eyeing cycle highs north of $5,000 may view current prices as a multi‑year discount.
Higher‑Beta Side Play: Solana—and Solaxy
Those seeking more torque might consider Solana, which has proven the go‑to chain for retail‑driven meme‑coin frenzies. Analysts see a plausible 3 × move for SOL if macro conditions improve. Even spicier is Solaxy (SOLX), a Solana layer‑2 that has already raised $30 million in its presale—momentum that could translate into outsized returns if the broader market bounces.
Bottom Line
Ethereum’s chart still leans bearish, but valuation metrics, DeFi dominance, and potential policy tailwinds suggest the foundation for a comeback is forming. Patience may be required: a genuine trend reversal likely hinges on macro relief and a break above $1,670. For now, disciplined accumulation near support—and a vigilant eye on Fed policy—could offer the best risk‑reward for ETH bulls.
