Quantum Computing Startup Dares Public to Break Toy Bitcoin Key
On April 16, 2025, Project 11 — a quantum tech firm — unveiled the Q-Day Prize, a competition challenging participants to break segments of a simplified version of Bitcoin’s cryptographic key using a quantum computer and Shor’s algorithm. The goal? Expose potential vulnerabilities in Bitcoin’s security framework. A reward of 1 BTC awaits the top-performing team or individual. The deadline for submissions is April 5, 2026.
Why the Competition Exists
Researchers behind the challenge believe quantum computers will eventually outperform classical systems by vast margins — achieving in seconds what could take traditional systems nearly 50 years. This quantum leap presents a major threat to blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum, whose encryption is rooted in elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), a system highly susceptible to quantum algorithms like Shor’s.
Despite fears that the contest could spotlight Bitcoin’s flaws, Project 11 states its mission is proactive: to assess the extent of this risk and prepare defensive technologies. As they emphasized on X, their objective is to safeguard over six million BTC by better understanding potential weaknesses in ECC through open experimentation.
How the Challenge Works
Project 11 doesn’t expect anyone to fully crack a real 256-bit Bitcoin key. Instead, it offers “toy” keys ranging from 1 to 25 bits. Even partial success, such as breaking a 3-bit toy key using quantum tools, would mark major progress in the field — and contribute vital data for future cryptographic defense.
Promoting Openness and Visibility
Transparency is a cornerstone of the Q-Day Prize. Project 11 believes real quantum risks should be investigated openly — not hidden behind corporate labs or closed research teams.
They stated:
“Quantum tech is evolving fast, and its impact on cryptography is unavoidable. We’re not waiting for surprises. This initiative is about confronting that future now, openly and scientifically.”
By making all submissions public, the company aims to make the quantum threat observable, auditable, and community-tested, much like the ethos behind open-source development.
Assessing the Real Risk from Quantum Computers
So far, no real-world ECC encryption has been broken — neither by traditional brute force nor by quantum computing. Still, the race is on. Project 11’s own references highlight that NIST is already pushing for a post-quantum cryptography (PQC) transition. Several wallet companies have started branding themselves as “quantum-safe” solutions.
Currently, cracking a 256-bit ECC key would require a quantum machine with around 2,000 stable qubits. Today’s most advanced chips, like Google’s Willow (105 qubits), IBM’s Heron (150 qubits), or QuEra’s 256-qubit analog platform, fall well short.
Crypto Community Shares Mixed Views
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino believes that by the time quantum threats become real, Bitcoin users will have already migrated to quantum-resistant wallets — leaving only “lost” coins like Satoshi’s at risk. Meanwhile, John Lilic from Telos Blockchain suggests quantum tools could restore access to lost wallets, not just hack them.
Experts estimate real quantum danger may arise between 2030 and 2050. For now, users relying on cold storage, multisig wallets, or quantum-proof tech are largely safe.
