Bitcoin’s recent rally past $94,000 has ignited retail excitement, but analysts warn that excessive FOMO could signal an incoming correction.
Bitcoin Surge Sparks Retail Frenzy
Bitcoin’s climb above $94,000 on Wednesday has reignited enthusiasm among retail traders. As $100,000 price predictions spread across social media, seasoned analysts are urging investors to tread carefully.
Santiment took to X (formerly Twitter) to caution against the euphoric mood. “$100K could very likely arrive in the near future,” the firm wrote, “but it typically won’t happen till the emojis calm.”
The warning quoted analyst Maksim, who noted a spike in speculative Bitcoin calls and stressed: “$100K by week’s end? Not so fast. Patience > hype.”
Data from Santiment shows retail-driven FOMO is on the rise—often a pattern that precedes local tops and short-term pullbacks.
Bitcoin Retail FOMO Meets Whale Accumulation
While retail traders are driving up enthusiasm, large holders are quietly accumulating.
Santiment reported that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have acquired over 19,255 BTC recently, totaling more than 50,000 BTC since March 22.
These whales and sharks now control over 67% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply—a historically bullish signal.
Bitcoin’s 11.2% rally from April 21 to April 25 coincided with this whale accumulation, reinforcing optimism that the current move has strong backing.
Adding to bullish indicators, CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin’s 100-day average netflows to exchanges have dropped to the lowest since February 2023.
This massive outflow suggests investors are moving their holdings off exchanges for long-term storage, a trend that often precedes sustained price growth.
Greed Grows, But So Does Caution
Despite bullish technicals, warning signs of an overheated market are emerging.
The Fear & Greed Index peaked at 72 on April 23—its highest since February—before cooling slightly to 60 on April 25. Nevertheless, it remains deep in “Greed” territory.
Bitcoin is currently priced around $93,289.
The RSI sits at 66.10, near overbought levels, suggesting that momentum remains strong but a correction is possible.
Bollinger Bands are widening, implying that volatility is increasing.
Key resistance lies at $95,091, while support stands at $87,724.
Not all analysts are convinced of further gains. Markus Thielen of 10x Research pointed out that their stablecoin minting signal—a reliable predictor of sustainable rallies—has yet to show a strong confirmation.
On the flip side, Michaël van de Poppe of MN Trading Capital remains bullish, suggesting that ongoing buying pressure could soon drive Bitcoin to fresh all-time highs.
ETF flows are adding to the positive outlook. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.68 billion in inflows last week—their third-best week since launch—highlighting strong institutional demand.
According to ARK Invest’s forecast, Bitcoin could hit $300,000 under a base-case scenario by 2030—or up to $2.4 million in a highly optimistic outcome.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s dominance remains firm at 64.29%, as altcoins continue to underperform.
CoinMarketCap’s altcoin season index shows a reading of just 17 out of 100, confirming Bitcoin’s current market leadership.
Bitcoin remains above its 100-hour simple moving average and holds steady over $92,000. However, it faces tough resistance at $94,500.
Failure to break through could trigger a retracement toward $91,200.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s explosive rally above $94K highlights a clash between short-term retail excitement and strategic long-term accumulation by whales and institutions.
While technicals favor further upside, the surging greed may warrant a cooling-off period before Bitcoin’s next major move higher.
